Time to Break Out of Diplomatic Impasse with Iran
August 8, 2008
Transcript
As yet another deadline passed
and Tehran again refused to suspend its uranium enrichment,
the real response came in the form of naval missile tests,
and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz for an ''unlimited
period.''
Although this futile exercise of offering concessions and
negotiations to convince the ayatollahs to abandon their
nuclear ambitions is not news, it serves as yet another
demonstration of how Tehran is feeding off the West’s
weakness and greed.
Last week, to set the record straight, again, in case anyone
doubted its nuclear determination, the mullahs’ Supreme
Leader Ali Khamene'i said that "Taking one step back in the
face of the arrogant (powers) will lead them to take one
step forward.'' He added that "The horizon is bright for us
and we know what we are doing and where we are going... The
way to reach that point is not to stand still but to go
forward."
The July 19, 2008 nuclear talks in Geneva, where a senior
U.S. official, William Burns was for the first time present,
was meant to jump-start a new robust approach to send a
decisive signal to Tehran that the five permanent members of
the Security Council and Germany mean business. They offered
a package of incentives and a two week deadline for Tehran
to comply. As expected, Tehran is no where near compliance.
Let’s take Monday, for example, when Tehran announced that
its top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, was holding talks
with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana; meanwhile
Mohammad Ali Jafari, Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), boasted that "Closing the
Strait of Hormuz for an unlimited period of time would be
very easy." He told the state-run Fars news agency that "The
Guards have recently tested a naval weapon, and I can say
with certainty that the enemy's ships would not be safe
within a range of 300 kilometers.''
On Tuesday, August 5, deliberately missing its deadline by
three days, Tehran delivered its letter replying to an offer
by major powers over its nuclear program. The reply was
delivered to EU foreign policy Chief Javier Solana earlier
in the day. A European source said that the Iranian
authorities "say there will be a response but that
clarification is needed on certain points of the offer." The
response was "more obfuscation and delays" by Tehran,
according to an unidentified U.S. official. Tehran clearly
hit the ball back as yet another way to gain time.
Tehran's response, again, left the five permanent members of
the UN Security Council and Germany with no choice but to
agree on Wednesday to begin considering new sanctions on
Iran. But Tehran has already bought two and a half months of
precious time since it defied the UN Security Council
Resolution 1803 by its deadline on June 5. Since 2003, the
European Union has pandered to Tehran’s strategic goals.
Bedazzled by lucrative trade offers, the EU has promoted the
naive premise that with the right amount of incentives, the
ayatollahs would eventually back down on their nuclear
weapons program.
Last month the German newspaper Siegener Zeitung reported
that SPG Steiner-Prematechnik-Gastec will build three plants
in Iran that turn gas to liquid fuels, after Germany's
Export Control Office gave its approval in February for a
$157 million gas deal with Iran. In recent days Berlin has
been talking tough, but its refusal to use its tremendous
economic leverage detracts from a unified policy in response
to Tehran’s continued breach of three UN Security Council
resolutions demanding immediate enrichment suspension.
Tehran can be expected to continue to do its utmost to sow
division and paralysis in the ranks of the group of 5+1. The
mullahs have had some success, dangling the prospects of
negotiations and lucrative deals, counter-poised with
threats of belligerent action. They must be stopped now.
The Europeans have yet to grasp the apocalyptic prospect of
a theocratic regime, armed with nuclear weapons and
ballistic missiles, prone to terrorism, and hell bent on
establishing the rule of God on earth. This prospect cannot
be wished away or bought off. As Khamenei pointed out, his
regime has to go forward, or it will fall. For Tehran,
nuclear prowess in not a matter of national or technological
pride; it is a matter of survival.
Contrary to what the ayatollahs and their trans-Atlantic
advocates want us to believe, the world is not doomed to
choose between bad and worse - Tehran’s trap of endless
''negotiations'' while it continues to enrich, or military
confrontation. There is a way out of this impasse. The
resilience of the anti-regime protests and unrest, despite a
drastic rise in suppressive measures, is a tell-tale sign of
extensive opposition to the regime simmering just beneath
the surface. The ayatollahs are so fearful that in recent
months the IRGC, the regime’s rear guard, has gone through
an unprecedented reorganization to ready itself to put down
''internal threats.''
The democratic opposition has been handicapped by the
shackling of the formidable organization leading the
movement, the People’s Mojahedin (PMOI/MEK). The next round
of sanctions must be toughened to reflect Tehran’s defiance
and the dire threat posed by the ayatollahs. More
importantly, according to some leading European experts,
these sanctions must be augmented by empowering the
democratic opposition in Iran. Not doing so in amounts to
postponing, if not removing, the prospect of a non-nuclear,
peaceful Iran.
That is exactly why in recent weeks hundreds of
parliamentarians from Britain, France, and Italy have come
together to voice their support for democratic change in
Iran and for removing the stigma of terrorism from Iran’s
main opposition. They see the highest security interests of
Europe served through emergence of a democratic, secular,
and non-nuclear government in Iran, and they see the Iranian
opposition as indispensable to such a prospect.
Alireza Jafarzadeh is a FOX News Channel Foreign Affairs
Analyst and the author of "The
Iran Threat: President Ahmadinejad and the Coming Nuclear
Crisis" (Palgrave Macmillan, 2007).
Jafarzadeh has revealed Iran's terrorist network in Iraq and
its terror training camps since 2003. He first disclosed the
existence of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility and the
Arak heavy water facility in August 2002.
